Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Kotwica Kórnik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz

Prediction Audit: Kotwica Kórnik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kotwica Kórnik Kotwica Kórnik
Aug 28, 2026 - 15:30
4 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
Chemik Bydgoszcz Chemik Bydgoszcz

The model missed the final outcome (Kotwica Kórnik win 4–1).

The model had projected Chemik Bydgoszcz at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chemik Bydgoszcz Kotwica Kórnik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kotwica Kórnik 34.7% 35.8% -1.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.2% +4.5 pp Aligned
Chemik Bydgoszcz 35.6% 39.0% -3.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kotwica Kórnik win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Chemik Bydgoszcz; match finished Kotwica Kórnik

Market lesson

The full-time result was Kotwica Kórnik win 4–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kotwica Kórnik 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Chemik Bydgoszcz 35.6%
    • xG · Kotwica Kórnik 1.29 — Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.31
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kotwica Kórnik 2.48 · Draw 3.53 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 2.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Kotwica Kórnik 35.8% · Draw 25.2% · Chemik Bydgoszcz 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kotwica Kórnik 2.48 · Draw 3.53 · Chemik Bydgoszcz 2.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Kotwica Kórnik 35.8% · Draw 25.2% · Chemik Bydgoszcz 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kotwica Kórnik win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4926160

Closing Odds 3.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kotwica Kórnik win · Kotwica Kórnik 4–1 Chemik Bydgoszcz
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Kotwica Kórnik vs Chemik Bydgoszcz
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Kotwica Kórnik 1.29 — Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming III Liga - Group 2 Matches Track Kotwica Kórnik Next Match Prediction Track Chemik Bydgoszcz Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 9 7 2 0 23
2 Luzino 9 7 1 1 22
3 Kluczevia Stargard 9 6 1 2 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Kalisz 9 3 5 1 14
7 Stargard Szczeciński 9 4 2 3 14
8 Flota Świnoujście 9 4 2 3 14
9 Noteć Czarnków 9 4 1 4 13
10 Gedania Gdansk 9 2 4 3 10
11 Grom Nowy Staw 9 3 1 5 10
12 Kotwica Kórnik 9 3 1 5 10
13 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 2 3 4 9
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 1 5 3 8
15 Unia Swarzędz 9 2 1 6 7
16 Elana Toruń 9 1 3 5 6
17 Victoria Września 9 1 3 5 6
18 Lipno Stęszew 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 9 28 10 +18 22
2 Polonia Środa 9 27 14 +13 23
3 Grom Nowy Staw 9 24 24 0 10
4 Gedania Gdansk 9 22 21 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 9 19 15 +4 19
6 Stargard Szczeciński 9 19 16 +3 14
7 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
8 Kotwica Kórnik 9 17 22 -5 10
9 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
10 Kalisz 9 15 10 +5 14
11 Noteć Czarnków 9 15 13 +2 13
12 Flota Świnoujście 9 15 15 0 14
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 13 18 -5 8
14 Unia Swarzędz 9 11 19 -8 7
15 Elana Toruń 9 11 19 -8 6
16 Lipno Stęszew 9 10 21 -11 4
17 Victoria Września 9 10 22 -12 6
18 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 9 13 -4 9
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions