Prediction Audit: Unia Swarzędz vs Wda Świecie Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Unia Swarzędz

Aug 23, 2026 - 11:00

0 1.45

1 1.15

xG Accuracy: 64%

Wda Świecie

The model missed the final outcome (Wda Świecie win 0–1).

The model had projected Unia Swarzędz at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Unia Swarzędz Wda Świecie ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Unia Swarzędz	42.4%	52.2%	-9.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.3%	24.0%	+5.3 pp	Model Higher
Wda Świecie	28.4%	23.8%	+4.6 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Unia Swarzędz's win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wda Świecie win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Unia Swarzędz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Unia Swarzędz; match finished Wda Świecie

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Unia Swarzędz by 9.8 percentage points (52.2% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Unia Swarzędz 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Wda Świecie 28.4%
- xG · Unia Swarzędz 1.45 — Wda Świecie 1.15
Aug 23, 2026 · 10:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Unia Swarzędz 1.70 · Draw 3.70 · Wda Świecie 3.73
- Implied 1X2 · Unia Swarzędz 52.2% · Draw 24.0% · Wda Świecie 23.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Unia Swarzędz 1.70 · Draw 3.70 · Wda Świecie 3.73
- Implied 1X2 · Unia Swarzędz 52.2% · Draw 24.0% · Wda Świecie 23.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Wda Świecie win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100

Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4360439

Closing Odds 1.7

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Wda Świecie win · Unia Swarzędz 0–1 Wda Świecie

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 2
Fixture: Unia Swarzędz vs Wda Świecie
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
xG (showing): Unia Swarzędz 1.45 — Wda Świecie 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	9	7	2	0	23
2	Luzino	9	7	1	1	22
3	Kluczevia Stargard	9	6	1	2	19
4	Wda Świecie	9	5	3	1	18
5	Lech Poznań II	9	4	3	2	15
6	Kalisz	9	3	5	1	14
7	Stargard Szczeciński	9	4	2	3	14
8	Flota Świnoujście	9	4	2	3	14
9	Noteć Czarnków	9	4	1	4	13
10	Gedania Gdansk	9	2	4	3	10
11	Grom Nowy Staw	9	3	1	5	10
12	Kotwica Kórnik	9	3	1	5	10
13	Bałtyk Koszalin	9	2	3	4	9
14	Chemik Bydgoszcz	9	1	5	3	8
15	Unia Swarzędz	9	2	1	6	7
16	Elana Toruń	9	1	3	5	6
17	Victoria Września	9	1	3	5	6
18	Lipno Stęszew	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Luzino	9	28	10	+18	22
2	Polonia Środa	9	27	14	+13	23
3	Grom Nowy Staw	9	24	24	0	10
4	Gedania Gdansk	9	22	21	+1	10
5	Kluczevia Stargard	9	19	15	+4	19
6	Stargard Szczeciński	9	19	16	+3	14
7	Lech Poznań II	9	17	15	+2	15
8	Kotwica Kórnik	9	17	22	-5	10
9	Wda Świecie	9	15	10	+5	18
10	Kalisz	9	15	10	+5	14
11	Noteć Czarnków	9	15	13	+2	13
12	Flota Świnoujście	9	15	15	0	14
13	Chemik Bydgoszcz	9	13	18	-5	8
14	Unia Swarzędz	9	11	19	-8	7
15	Elana Toruń	9	11	19	-8	6
16	Lipno Stęszew	9	10	21	-11	4
17	Victoria Września	9	10	22	-12	6
18	Bałtyk Koszalin	9	9	13	-4	9