Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard

Prediction Audit: Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Grom Nowy Staw Grom Nowy Staw
Aug 23, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.29
4 1.31
xG Accuracy: 30%
Kluczevia Stargard Kluczevia Stargard

AI correctly predicted the Kluczevia Stargard win.

The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kluczevia Stargard Kluczevia Stargard ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kluczevia Stargard higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kluczevia Stargard -16.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Grom Nowy Staw 34.7% 24.7% +10.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.4% +6.3 pp Model Higher
Kluczevia Stargard 35.6% 51.9% -16.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kluczevia Stargard's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 16.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kluczevia Stargard win 3–4).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kluczevia Stargard than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kluczevia Stargard higher (51.9% vs model 35.6%, 16.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kluczevia Stargard win 3–4).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Grom Nowy Staw 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Kluczevia Stargard 35.6%
    • xG · Grom Nowy Staw 1.29 — Kluczevia Stargard 1.31
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Grom Nowy Staw 3.59 · Draw 3.80 · Kluczevia Stargard 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Grom Nowy Staw 24.7% · Draw 23.4% · Kluczevia Stargard 51.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Grom Nowy Staw 3.59 · Draw 3.80 · Kluczevia Stargard 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Grom Nowy Staw 24.7% · Draw 23.4% · Kluczevia Stargard 51.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kluczevia Stargard win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4361315

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kluczevia Stargard win · Grom Nowy Staw 3–4 Kluczevia Stargard
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Grom Nowy Staw 1.29 — Kluczevia Stargard 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 9 7 2 0 23
2 Luzino 9 7 1 1 22
3 Kluczevia Stargard 9 6 1 2 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Kalisz 9 3 5 1 14
7 Stargard Szczeciński 9 4 2 3 14
8 Flota Świnoujście 9 4 2 3 14
9 Noteć Czarnków 9 4 1 4 13
10 Gedania Gdansk 9 2 4 3 10
11 Grom Nowy Staw 9 3 1 5 10
12 Kotwica Kórnik 9 3 1 5 10
13 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 2 3 4 9
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 1 5 3 8
15 Unia Swarzędz 9 2 1 6 7
16 Elana Toruń 9 1 3 5 6
17 Victoria Września 9 1 3 5 6
18 Lipno Stęszew 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 9 28 10 +18 22
2 Polonia Środa 9 27 14 +13 23
3 Grom Nowy Staw 9 24 24 0 10
4 Gedania Gdansk 9 22 21 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 9 19 15 +4 19
6 Stargard Szczeciński 9 19 16 +3 14
7 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
8 Kotwica Kórnik 9 17 22 -5 10
9 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
10 Kalisz 9 15 10 +5 14
11 Noteć Czarnków 9 15 13 +2 13
12 Flota Świnoujście 9 15 15 0 14
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 13 18 -5 8
14 Unia Swarzędz 9 11 19 -8 7
15 Elana Toruń 9 11 19 -8 6
16 Lipno Stęszew 9 10 21 -11 4
17 Victoria Września 9 10 22 -12 6
18 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 9 13 -4 9
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions