Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Flota Świnoujście vs Victoria Września

Prediction Audit: Flota Świnoujście vs Victoria Września Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Flota Świnoujście Flota Świnoujście
Aug 19, 2026 - 15:00
5 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 25%
Victoria Września Victoria Września

AI correctly predicted the Flota Świnoujście win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Flota Świnoujście Flota Świnoujście ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Flota Świnoujście higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Flota Świnoujście -15.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Flota Świnoujście 35.2% 50.2% -15.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.9% +2.8 pp Aligned
Victoria Września 35.2% 22.9% +12.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Flota Świnoujście's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Flota Świnoujście win 5–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Flota Świnoujście than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Flota Świnoujście higher (50.3% vs model 35.2%, 15.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Flota Świnoujście win 5–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Flota Świnoujście 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Victoria Września 35.2%
    • xG · Flota Świnoujście 1.30 — Victoria Września 1.30
  2. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Flota Świnoujście 1.77 · Draw 3.31 · Victoria Września 3.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Flota Świnoujście 50.2% · Draw 26.9% · Victoria Września 22.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Flota Świnoujście 1.77 · Draw 3.31 · Victoria Września 3.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Flota Świnoujście 50.2% · Draw 26.9% · Victoria Września 22.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Flota Świnoujście win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3819260

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Flota Świnoujście win · Flota Świnoujście 5–0 Victoria Września
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Flota Świnoujście vs Victoria Września
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Flota Świnoujście 1.3 — Victoria Września 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 9 7 2 0 23
2 Luzino 9 7 1 1 22
3 Kluczevia Stargard 9 6 1 2 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Kalisz 9 3 5 1 14
7 Stargard Szczeciński 9 4 2 3 14
8 Flota Świnoujście 9 4 2 3 14
9 Noteć Czarnków 9 4 1 4 13
10 Gedania Gdansk 9 2 4 3 10
11 Grom Nowy Staw 9 3 1 5 10
12 Kotwica Kórnik 9 3 1 5 10
13 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 2 3 4 9
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 1 5 3 8
15 Unia Swarzędz 9 2 1 6 7
16 Elana Toruń 9 1 3 5 6
17 Victoria Września 9 1 3 5 6
18 Lipno Stęszew 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 9 28 10 +18 22
2 Polonia Środa 9 27 14 +13 23
3 Grom Nowy Staw 9 24 24 0 10
4 Gedania Gdansk 9 22 21 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 9 19 15 +4 19
6 Stargard Szczeciński 9 19 16 +3 14
7 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
8 Kotwica Kórnik 9 17 22 -5 10
9 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
10 Kalisz 9 15 10 +5 14
11 Noteć Czarnków 9 15 13 +2 13
12 Flota Świnoujście 9 15 15 0 14
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 13 18 -5 8
14 Unia Swarzędz 9 11 19 -8 7
15 Elana Toruń 9 11 19 -8 6
16 Lipno Stęszew 9 10 21 -11 4
17 Victoria Września 9 10 22 -12 6
18 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 9 13 -4 9
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions