Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Lipno Stęszew vs Kluczevia Stargard

Prediction Audit: Lipno Stęszew vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lipno Stęszew Lipno Stęszew
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
Kluczevia Stargard Kluczevia Stargard

The model missed the final outcome (Kluczevia Stargard win 1–4).

The model had projected Lipno Stęszew at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lipno Stęszew Kluczevia Stargard ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kluczevia Stargard higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kluczevia Stargard -5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lipno Stęszew 36.1% 33.8% +2.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.6% +3.0 pp Aligned
Kluczevia Stargard 34.2% 39.5% -5.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Kluczevia Stargard's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Kluczevia Stargard win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kluczevia Stargard. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Lipno Stęszew; match finished Kluczevia Stargard

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lipno Stęszew by 5.3 percentage points (41.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lipno Stęszew 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Kluczevia Stargard 34.2%
    • xG · Lipno Stęszew 1.32 — Kluczevia Stargard 1.28
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lipno Stęszew 2.63 · Draw 3.34 · Kluczevia Stargard 2.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Lipno Stęszew 33.8% · Draw 26.6% · Kluczevia Stargard 39.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Lipno Stęszew 2.63 · Draw 3.34 · Kluczevia Stargard 2.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Lipno Stęszew 33.8% · Draw 26.6% · Kluczevia Stargard 39.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kluczevia Stargard win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3359231

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kluczevia Stargard win · Lipno Stęszew 1–4 Kluczevia Stargard
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Lipno Stęszew vs Kluczevia Stargard
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Lipno Stęszew 1.32 — Kluczevia Stargard 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 2 Matches Track Lipno Stęszew Next Match Prediction Track Kluczevia Stargard Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 9 7 2 0 23
2 Luzino 9 7 1 1 22
3 Kluczevia Stargard 9 6 1 2 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Kalisz 9 3 5 1 14
7 Stargard Szczeciński 9 4 2 3 14
8 Flota Świnoujście 9 4 2 3 14
9 Noteć Czarnków 9 4 1 4 13
10 Gedania Gdansk 9 2 4 3 10
11 Grom Nowy Staw 9 3 1 5 10
12 Kotwica Kórnik 9 3 1 5 10
13 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 2 3 4 9
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 1 5 3 8
15 Unia Swarzędz 9 2 1 6 7
16 Elana Toruń 9 1 3 5 6
17 Victoria Września 9 1 3 5 6
18 Lipno Stęszew 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 9 28 10 +18 22
2 Polonia Środa 9 27 14 +13 23
3 Grom Nowy Staw 9 24 24 0 10
4 Gedania Gdansk 9 22 21 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 9 19 15 +4 19
6 Stargard Szczeciński 9 19 16 +3 14
7 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
8 Kotwica Kórnik 9 17 22 -5 10
9 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
10 Kalisz 9 15 10 +5 14
11 Noteć Czarnków 9 15 13 +2 13
12 Flota Świnoujście 9 15 15 0 14
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 13 18 -5 8
14 Unia Swarzędz 9 11 19 -8 7
15 Elana Toruń 9 11 19 -8 6
16 Lipno Stęszew 9 10 21 -11 4
17 Victoria Września 9 10 22 -12 6
18 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 9 13 -4 9
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions