Prediction Audit: Wda Świecie vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wda Świecie

Aug 08, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.22

1 1.38

xG Accuracy: 73%

Lipno Stęszew

The model missed the final outcome (Wda Świecie win 2–1).

The model had projected Lipno Stęszew at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Lipno Stęszew Wda Świecie ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Wda Świecie	31.5%	38.6%	-7.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.5%	27.9%	+1.6 pp	Aligned
Lipno Stęszew	39.0%	33.4%	+5.6 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Wda Świecie's win probability at 38.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wda Świecie win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Wda Świecie. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Lipno Stęszew; match finished Wda Świecie

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lipno Stęszew by 7.2 percentage points (46.2% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 08, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wda Świecie 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Lipno Stęszew 39.0%
- xG · Wda Świecie 1.22 — Lipno Stęszew 1.38
Aug 08, 2026 · 14:37 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wda Świecie 2.30 · Draw 3.18 · Lipno Stęszew 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · Wda Świecie 38.6% · Draw 27.9% · Lipno Stęszew 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 08, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wda Świecie 2.30 · Draw 3.18 · Lipno Stęszew 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · Wda Świecie 38.6% · Draw 27.9% · Lipno Stęszew 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 08, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Wda Świecie win · 2–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2823862

Closing Odds 2.3

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Wda Świecie win · Wda Świecie 2–1 Lipno Stęszew

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: III Liga - Group 2
Fixture: Wda Świecie vs Lipno Stęszew
Kickoff: 2026-08-08 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Wda Świecie 1.22 — Lipno Stęszew 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Polonia Środa	9	7	2	0	23
2	Luzino	9	7	1	1	22
3	Kluczevia Stargard	9	6	1	2	19
4	Wda Świecie	9	5	3	1	18
5	Lech Poznań II	9	4	3	2	15
6	Kalisz	9	3	5	1	14
7	Stargard Szczeciński	9	4	2	3	14
8	Flota Świnoujście	9	4	2	3	14
9	Noteć Czarnków	9	4	1	4	13
10	Gedania Gdansk	9	2	4	3	10
11	Grom Nowy Staw	9	3	1	5	10
12	Kotwica Kórnik	9	3	1	5	10
13	Bałtyk Koszalin	9	2	3	4	9
14	Chemik Bydgoszcz	9	1	5	3	8
15	Unia Swarzędz	9	2	1	6	7
16	Elana Toruń	9	1	3	5	6
17	Victoria Września	9	1	3	5	6
18	Lipno Stęszew	9	1	1	7	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Luzino	9	28	10	+18	22
2	Polonia Środa	9	27	14	+13	23
3	Grom Nowy Staw	9	24	24	0	10
4	Gedania Gdansk	9	22	21	+1	10
5	Kluczevia Stargard	9	19	15	+4	19
6	Stargard Szczeciński	9	19	16	+3	14
7	Lech Poznań II	9	17	15	+2	15
8	Kotwica Kórnik	9	17	22	-5	10
9	Wda Świecie	9	15	10	+5	18
10	Kalisz	9	15	10	+5	14
11	Noteć Czarnków	9	15	13	+2	13
12	Flota Świnoujście	9	15	15	0	14
13	Chemik Bydgoszcz	9	13	18	-5	8
14	Unia Swarzędz	9	11	19	-8	7
15	Elana Toruń	9	11	19	-8	6
16	Lipno Stęszew	9	10	21	-11	4
17	Victoria Września	9	10	22	-12	6
18	Bałtyk Koszalin	9	9	13	-4	9