Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 2 / Gedania Gdansk vs Noteć Czarnków

Prediction Audit: Gedania Gdansk vs Noteć Czarnków Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gedania Gdansk Gedania Gdansk
Jul 31, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.18
3 1.42
xG Accuracy: 23%
Noteć Czarnków Noteć Czarnków

The model missed the final outcome (Gedania Gdansk win 5–3).

The model had projected Noteć Czarnków at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Noteć Czarnków Gedania Gdansk ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 5-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Gedania Gdansk higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gedania Gdansk -6.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gedania Gdansk 29.7% 36.6% -6.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 24.1% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Noteć Czarnków 40.9% 39.3% +1.6 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Gedania Gdansk's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Gedania Gdansk win 5–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Gedania Gdansk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Noteć Czarnków; match finished Gedania Gdansk

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Noteć Czarnków by 6.9 percentage points (47.8% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gedania Gdansk 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Noteć Czarnków 41.0%
    • xG · Gedania Gdansk 1.18 — Noteć Czarnków 1.42
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gedania Gdansk 2.43 · Draw 3.68 · Noteć Czarnków 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Gedania Gdansk 36.6% · Draw 24.1% · Noteć Czarnków 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gedania Gdansk 2.43 · Draw 3.68 · Noteć Czarnków 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Gedania Gdansk 36.6% · Draw 24.1% · Noteć Czarnków 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gedania Gdansk win · 5–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 65/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 03:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1672770

Closing Odds 2.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gedania Gdansk win · Gedania Gdansk 5–3 Noteć Czarnków
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 2
  • Fixture: Gedania Gdansk vs Noteć Czarnków
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Gedania Gdansk 1.18 — Noteć Czarnków 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 2 III Liga - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Polonia Środa 9 7 2 0 23
2 Luzino 9 7 1 1 22
3 Kluczevia Stargard 9 6 1 2 19
4 Wda Świecie 9 5 3 1 18
5 Lech Poznań II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Kalisz 9 3 5 1 14
7 Stargard Szczeciński 9 4 2 3 14
8 Flota Świnoujście 9 4 2 3 14
9 Noteć Czarnków 9 4 1 4 13
10 Gedania Gdansk 9 2 4 3 10
11 Grom Nowy Staw 9 3 1 5 10
12 Kotwica Kórnik 9 3 1 5 10
13 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 2 3 4 9
14 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 1 5 3 8
15 Unia Swarzędz 9 2 1 6 7
16 Elana Toruń 9 1 3 5 6
17 Victoria Września 9 1 3 5 6
18 Lipno Stęszew 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Luzino 9 28 10 +18 22
2 Polonia Środa 9 27 14 +13 23
3 Grom Nowy Staw 9 24 24 0 10
4 Gedania Gdansk 9 22 21 +1 10
5 Kluczevia Stargard 9 19 15 +4 19
6 Stargard Szczeciński 9 19 16 +3 14
7 Lech Poznań II 9 17 15 +2 15
8 Kotwica Kórnik 9 17 22 -5 10
9 Wda Świecie 9 15 10 +5 18
10 Kalisz 9 15 10 +5 14
11 Noteć Czarnków 9 15 13 +2 13
12 Flota Świnoujście 9 15 15 0 14
13 Chemik Bydgoszcz 9 13 18 -5 8
14 Unia Swarzędz 9 11 19 -8 7
15 Elana Toruń 9 11 19 -8 6
16 Lipno Stęszew 9 10 21 -11 4
17 Victoria Września 9 10 22 -12 6
18 Bałtyk Koszalin 9 9 13 -4 9
III Liga - Group 2 Poland. III Liga - Group 2 Predictions