Prediction Audit: Warta Gorzów vs Ślęza Wrocław Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Warta Gorzów

Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.37

1 1.23

xG Accuracy: 85%

Ślęza Wrocław

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Warta Gorzów at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Warta Gorzów Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Warta Gorzów	38.5%	55.1%	-16.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.7%	+5.9 pp	Model Higher
Ślęza Wrocław	31.9%	21.2%	+10.7 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Warta Gorzów's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Warta Gorzów than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
1X2: model leaned Warta Gorzów; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Warta Gorzów by 16.6 percentage points (55.1% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 26, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Ślęza Wrocław 31.9%
- xG · Warta Gorzów 1.37 — Ślęza Wrocław 1.23
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Warta Gorzów 1.61 · Draw 3.74 · Ślęza Wrocław 4.18
- Implied 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 55.1% · Draw 23.7% · Ślęza Wrocław 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Warta Gorzów 1.61 · Draw 3.74 · Ślęza Wrocław 4.18
- Implied 1X2 · Warta Gorzów 55.1% · Draw 23.7% · Ślęza Wrocław 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10083330

Closing Odds 1.61

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Warta Gorzów 1–1 Ślęza Wrocław

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: III Liga - Group 3
Fixture: Warta Gorzów vs Ślęza Wrocław
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Warta Gorzów 1.37 — Ślęza Wrocław 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Zagłębie Lubin II	9	6	3	0	21
2	Sparta Katowice	9	6	2	1	20
3	Odra Bytom Odrzański	9	6	2	1	20
4	Barycz Sułów	9	6	1	2	19
5	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	9	5	1	3	16
6	Górnik Polkowice	9	4	2	3	14
7	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	9	3	3	3	12
8	Kluczbork	9	4	0	5	12
9	Warta Gorzów	9	3	3	3	12
10	Miedź Legnica II	9	3	2	4	11
11	ROW Rybnik	9	3	2	4	11
12	Stal Brzeg	9	3	2	4	11
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	9	3	2	4	11
14	Stilon Gorzów	9	2	4	3	10
15	Rakow II	9	2	3	4	9
16	Ślęza Wrocław	9	2	0	7	6
17	Polonia Nysa	9	1	2	6	5
18	Carina Gubin	9	1	2	6	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Miedź Legnica II	9	23	18	+5	11
2	Zagłębie Lubin II	9	19	9	+10	21
3	ROW Rybnik	9	18	15	+3	11
4	Górnik Polkowice	9	18	16	+2	14
5	Sparta Katowice	9	16	6	+10	20
6	Stal Brzeg	9	15	12	+3	11
7	Barycz Sułów	9	14	8	+6	19
8	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	9	14	9	+5	16
9	Stilon Gorzów	9	14	13	+1	10
10	Ślęza Wrocław	9	14	25	-11	6
11	Rakow II	9	12	17	-5	9
12	Odra Bytom Odrzański	9	11	4	+7	20
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	9	11	13	-2	11
14	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	9	10	7	+3	12
15	Kluczbork	9	9	14	-5	12
16	Warta Gorzów	9	9	15	-6	12
17	Polonia Nysa	9	8	21	-13	5
18	Carina Gubin	9	6	19	-13	5