Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Barycz Sułów

Prediction Audit: Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Barycz Sułów Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Odra Bytom Odrzański Odra Bytom Odrzański
Sep 18, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
Barycz Sułów Barycz Sułów

The model missed the final outcome (Odra Bytom Odrzański win 1–0).

The model had projected Barycz Sułów at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Barycz Sułów Odra Bytom Odrzański ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Odra Bytom Odrzański higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Odra Bytom Odrzański -5.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Odra Bytom Odrzański 31.5% 37.2% -5.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 25.7% +3.9 pp Aligned
Barycz Sułów 39.0% 37.2% +1.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Odra Bytom Odrzański's win probability at 37.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Odra Bytom Odrzański win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Odra Bytom Odrzański. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Barycz Sułów; match finished Odra Bytom Odrzański

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Barycz Sułów by 5.7 percentage points (44.7% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Odra Bytom Odrzański 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Barycz Sułów 39.0%
    • xG · Odra Bytom Odrzański 1.22 — Barycz Sułów 1.38
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Odra Bytom Odrzański 2.39 · Draw 3.46 · Barycz Sułów 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Odra Bytom Odrzański 37.2% · Draw 25.7% · Barycz Sułów 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Odra Bytom Odrzański 2.39 · Draw 3.46 · Barycz Sułów 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Odra Bytom Odrzański 37.2% · Draw 25.7% · Barycz Sułów 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Odra Bytom Odrzański win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8225218

Closing Odds 2.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Odra Bytom Odrzański win · Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–0 Barycz Sułów
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Barycz Sułów
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Odra Bytom Odrzański 1.22 — Barycz Sułów 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.3% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming III Liga - Group 3 Matches Track Odra Bytom Odrzański Next Match Prediction Track Barycz Sułów Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 6 3 0 21
2 Sparta Katowice 9 6 2 1 20
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 6 2 1 20
4 Barycz Sułów 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Górnik Polkowice 9 4 2 3 14
7 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 3 3 3 12
8 Kluczbork 9 4 0 5 12
9 Warta Gorzów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Miedź Legnica II 9 3 2 4 11
11 ROW Rybnik 9 3 2 4 11
12 Stal Brzeg 9 3 2 4 11
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 3 2 4 11
14 Stilon Gorzów 9 2 4 3 10
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Ślęza Wrocław 9 2 0 7 6
17 Polonia Nysa 9 1 2 6 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 9 23 18 +5 11
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 19 9 +10 21
3 ROW Rybnik 9 18 15 +3 11
4 Górnik Polkowice 9 18 16 +2 14
5 Sparta Katowice 9 16 6 +10 20
6 Stal Brzeg 9 15 12 +3 11
7 Barycz Sułów 9 14 8 +6 19
8 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
9 Stilon Gorzów 9 14 13 +1 10
10 Ślęza Wrocław 9 14 25 -11 6
11 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
12 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 11 4 +7 20
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 11 13 -2 11
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 10 7 +3 12
15 Kluczbork 9 9 14 -5 12
16 Warta Gorzów 9 9 15 -6 12
17 Polonia Nysa 9 8 21 -13 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 6 19 -13 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions