Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Stilon Gorzów

Prediction Audit: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Stilon Gorzów Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Sep 13, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 39%
Stilon Gorzów Stilon Gorzów

AI correctly predicted the Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win.

The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Karkonosze Jelenia Góra higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra -15.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 37.5% 52.9% -15.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.0% +4.7 pp Aligned
Stilon Gorzów 32.9% 22.2% +10.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Karkonosze Jelenia Góra's win probability at 52.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 15.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win 4–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Karkonosze Jelenia Góra than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Karkonosze Jelenia Góra higher (52.9% vs model 37.5%, 15.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win 4–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Stilon Gorzów 32.9%
    • xG · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1.35 — Stilon Gorzów 1.25
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1.68 · Draw 3.56 · Stilon Gorzów 4.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 52.9% · Draw 25.0% · Stilon Gorzów 22.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1.68 · Draw 3.56 · Stilon Gorzów 4.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 52.9% · Draw 25.0% · Stilon Gorzów 22.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7433182

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win · Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 4–2 Stilon Gorzów
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Stilon Gorzów
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1.35 — Stilon Gorzów 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 3 Matches Track Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Next Match Prediction Track Stilon Gorzów Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 6 3 0 21
2 Sparta Katowice 9 6 2 1 20
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 6 2 1 20
4 Barycz Sułów 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Górnik Polkowice 9 4 2 3 14
7 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 3 3 3 12
8 Kluczbork 9 4 0 5 12
9 Warta Gorzów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Miedź Legnica II 9 3 2 4 11
11 ROW Rybnik 9 3 2 4 11
12 Stal Brzeg 9 3 2 4 11
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 3 2 4 11
14 Stilon Gorzów 9 2 4 3 10
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Ślęza Wrocław 9 2 0 7 6
17 Polonia Nysa 9 1 2 6 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 9 23 18 +5 11
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 19 9 +10 21
3 ROW Rybnik 9 18 15 +3 11
4 Górnik Polkowice 9 18 16 +2 14
5 Sparta Katowice 9 16 6 +10 20
6 Stal Brzeg 9 15 12 +3 11
7 Barycz Sułów 9 14 8 +6 19
8 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
9 Stilon Gorzów 9 14 13 +1 10
10 Ślęza Wrocław 9 14 25 -11 6
11 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
12 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 11 4 +7 20
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 11 13 -2 11
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 10 7 +3 12
15 Kluczbork 9 9 14 -5 12
16 Warta Gorzów 9 9 15 -6 12
17 Polonia Nysa 9 8 21 -13 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 6 19 -13 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions