Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin

Prediction Audit: Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Górnik Polkowice Górnik Polkowice
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 79%
Carina Gubin Carina Gubin

AI correctly predicted the Górnik Polkowice win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Górnik Polkowice Górnik Polkowice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Górnik Polkowice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Górnik Polkowice -16.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Górnik Polkowice 39.0% 55.9% -16.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 22.9% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Carina Gubin 31.5% 21.2% +10.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Górnik Polkowice's win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Górnik Polkowice win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Górnik Polkowice than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Górnik Polkowice higher (55.9% vs model 39.0%, 16.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Górnik Polkowice win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Górnik Polkowice 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Carina Gubin 31.5%
    • xG · Górnik Polkowice 1.38 — Carina Gubin 1.22
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Górnik Polkowice 1.54 · Draw 3.75 · Carina Gubin 4.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Górnik Polkowice 55.9% · Draw 22.9% · Carina Gubin 21.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Górnik Polkowice 1.54 · Draw 3.75 · Carina Gubin 4.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Górnik Polkowice 55.9% · Draw 22.9% · Carina Gubin 21.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Górnik Polkowice win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6361177

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Górnik Polkowice win · Górnik Polkowice 2–1 Carina Gubin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Górnik Polkowice 1.38 — Carina Gubin 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 6 3 0 21
2 Sparta Katowice 9 6 2 1 20
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 6 2 1 20
4 Barycz Sułów 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Górnik Polkowice 9 4 2 3 14
7 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 3 3 3 12
8 Kluczbork 9 4 0 5 12
9 Warta Gorzów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Miedź Legnica II 9 3 2 4 11
11 ROW Rybnik 9 3 2 4 11
12 Stal Brzeg 9 3 2 4 11
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 3 2 4 11
14 Stilon Gorzów 9 2 4 3 10
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Ślęza Wrocław 9 2 0 7 6
17 Polonia Nysa 9 1 2 6 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 9 23 18 +5 11
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 19 9 +10 21
3 ROW Rybnik 9 18 15 +3 11
4 Górnik Polkowice 9 18 16 +2 14
5 Sparta Katowice 9 16 6 +10 20
6 Stal Brzeg 9 15 12 +3 11
7 Barycz Sułów 9 14 8 +6 19
8 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
9 Stilon Gorzów 9 14 13 +1 10
10 Ślęza Wrocław 9 14 25 -11 6
11 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
12 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 11 4 +7 20
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 11 13 -2 11
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 10 7 +3 12
15 Kluczbork 9 9 14 -5 12
16 Warta Gorzów 9 9 15 -6 12
17 Polonia Nysa 9 8 21 -13 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 6 19 -13 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions