Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Ślęza Wrocław

Prediction Audit: Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Ślęza Wrocław Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Goczałkowice Zdrój Goczałkowice Zdrój
Aug 15, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Ślęza Wrocław Ślęza Wrocław

The model missed the final outcome (Ślęza Wrocław win 0–2).

The model had projected Goczałkowice Zdrój at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Goczałkowice Zdrój Ślęza Wrocław ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Goczałkowice Zdrój higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Goczałkowice Zdrój -14.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Goczałkowice Zdrój 36.1% 50.4% -14.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.5% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Ślęza Wrocław 34.2% 26.2% +8.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Goczałkowice Zdrój's win probability at 50.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ślęza Wrocław win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Goczałkowice Zdrój than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Goczałkowice Zdrój; match finished Ślęza Wrocław

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Goczałkowice Zdrój by 14.3 percentage points (50.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Goczałkowice Zdrój 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ślęza Wrocław 34.2%
    • xG · Goczałkowice Zdrój 1.32 — Ślęza Wrocław 1.28
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Goczałkowice Zdrój 1.76 · Draw 3.78 · Ślęza Wrocław 3.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Goczałkowice Zdrój 50.4% · Draw 23.5% · Ślęza Wrocław 26.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Goczałkowice Zdrój 1.76 · Draw 3.78 · Ślęza Wrocław 3.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Goczałkowice Zdrój 50.4% · Draw 23.5% · Ślęza Wrocław 26.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ślęza Wrocław win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 28/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3341806

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ślęza Wrocław win · Goczałkowice Zdrój 0–2 Ślęza Wrocław
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Ślęza Wrocław
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Goczałkowice Zdrój 1.32 — Ślęza Wrocław 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 6 3 0 21
2 Sparta Katowice 9 6 2 1 20
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 6 2 1 20
4 Barycz Sułów 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Górnik Polkowice 9 4 2 3 14
7 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 3 3 3 12
8 Kluczbork 9 4 0 5 12
9 Warta Gorzów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Miedź Legnica II 9 3 2 4 11
11 ROW Rybnik 9 3 2 4 11
12 Stal Brzeg 9 3 2 4 11
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 3 2 4 11
14 Stilon Gorzów 9 2 4 3 10
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Ślęza Wrocław 9 2 0 7 6
17 Polonia Nysa 9 1 2 6 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 9 23 18 +5 11
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 19 9 +10 21
3 ROW Rybnik 9 18 15 +3 11
4 Górnik Polkowice 9 18 16 +2 14
5 Sparta Katowice 9 16 6 +10 20
6 Stal Brzeg 9 15 12 +3 11
7 Barycz Sułów 9 14 8 +6 19
8 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
9 Stilon Gorzów 9 14 13 +1 10
10 Ślęza Wrocław 9 14 25 -11 6
11 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
12 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 11 4 +7 20
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 11 13 -2 11
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 10 7 +3 12
15 Kluczbork 9 9 14 -5 12
16 Warta Gorzów 9 9 15 -6 12
17 Polonia Nysa 9 8 21 -13 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 6 19 -13 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions