Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Kluczbork

Prediction Audit: Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Kluczbork Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Odra Bytom Odrzański Odra Bytom Odrzański
Aug 15, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.07
0 1.53
xG Accuracy: 64%
Kluczbork Kluczbork

The model missed the final outcome (Odra Bytom Odrzański win 1–0).

The model had projected Kluczbork at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kluczbork Odra Bytom Odrzański ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Odra Bytom Odrzański higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Odra Bytom Odrzański -15.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Odra Bytom Odrzański 25.0% 40.2% -15.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.7% 26.3% +2.5 pp Aligned
Kluczbork 46.3% 33.5% +12.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Odra Bytom Odrzański's win probability at 40.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.0%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Odra Bytom Odrzański win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Odra Bytom Odrzański than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Kluczbork; match finished Odra Bytom Odrzański

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kluczbork by 15.2 percentage points (61.5% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Odra Bytom Odrzański 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Kluczbork 46.3%
    • xG · Odra Bytom Odrzański 1.07 — Kluczbork 1.53
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Odra Bytom Odrzański 2.21 · Draw 3.38 · Kluczbork 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Odra Bytom Odrzański 40.2% · Draw 26.3% · Kluczbork 33.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Odra Bytom Odrzański 2.21 · Draw 3.38 · Kluczbork 2.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Odra Bytom Odrzański 40.2% · Draw 26.3% · Kluczbork 33.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Odra Bytom Odrzański win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3365548

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Odra Bytom Odrzański win · Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–0 Kluczbork
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Kluczbork
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.3%
  • xG (showing): Odra Bytom Odrzański 1.07 — Kluczbork 1.53 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 6 3 0 21
2 Sparta Katowice 9 6 2 1 20
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 6 2 1 20
4 Barycz Sułów 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Górnik Polkowice 9 4 2 3 14
7 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 3 3 3 12
8 Kluczbork 9 4 0 5 12
9 Warta Gorzów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Miedź Legnica II 9 3 2 4 11
11 ROW Rybnik 9 3 2 4 11
12 Stal Brzeg 9 3 2 4 11
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 3 2 4 11
14 Stilon Gorzów 9 2 4 3 10
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Ślęza Wrocław 9 2 0 7 6
17 Polonia Nysa 9 1 2 6 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 9 23 18 +5 11
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 19 9 +10 21
3 ROW Rybnik 9 18 15 +3 11
4 Górnik Polkowice 9 18 16 +2 14
5 Sparta Katowice 9 16 6 +10 20
6 Stal Brzeg 9 15 12 +3 11
7 Barycz Sułów 9 14 8 +6 19
8 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
9 Stilon Gorzów 9 14 13 +1 10
10 Ślęza Wrocław 9 14 25 -11 6
11 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
12 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 11 4 +7 20
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 11 13 -2 11
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 10 7 +3 12
15 Kluczbork 9 9 14 -5 12
16 Warta Gorzów 9 9 15 -6 12
17 Polonia Nysa 9 8 21 -13 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 6 19 -13 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions