Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Stal Brzeg vs Sparta Katowice

Prediction Audit: Stal Brzeg vs Sparta Katowice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stal Brzeg Stal Brzeg
Aug 14, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.17
1 1.43
xG Accuracy: 85%
Sparta Katowice Sparta Katowice

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sparta Katowice at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sparta Katowice Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sparta Katowice; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Stal Brzeg 1.17 — Sparta Katowice 1.43
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3228209

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Stal Brzeg 1–1 Sparta Katowice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Stal Brzeg vs Sparta Katowice
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Stal Brzeg 1.17 — Sparta Katowice 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sparta Katowice 11 7 3 1 24
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 11 6 5 0 23
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 11 7 2 2 23
4 Barycz Sułów 11 6 2 3 20
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 10 6 1 3 19
6 Górnik Polkowice 12 5 3 4 18
7 ROW Rybnik 11 5 2 4 17
8 Stilon Gorzów 12 4 4 4 16
9 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 11 4 3 4 15
10 Miedź Legnica II 11 4 2 5 14
11 Warta Gorzów 11 3 5 3 14
12 Kluczbork 10 4 0 6 12
13 Stal Brzeg 11 3 2 6 11
14 Goczałkowice Zdrój 11 3 2 6 11
15 Ślęza Wrocław 11 3 1 7 10
16 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
17 Polonia Nysa 11 2 2 7 8
18 Carina Gubin 11 2 2 7 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 11 25 21 +4 14
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 11 23 13 +10 23
3 ROW Rybnik 11 23 18 +5 17
4 Górnik Polkowice 12 23 19 +4 18
5 Stilon Gorzów 12 20 19 +1 16
6 Sparta Katowice 11 19 7 +12 24
7 Barycz Sułów 11 18 13 +5 20
8 Stal Brzeg 11 18 17 +1 11
9 Ślęza Wrocław 11 17 26 -9 10
10 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 10 15 9 +6 19
11 Odra Bytom Odrzański 11 12 5 +7 23
12 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 11 12 9 +3 15
13 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
14 Polonia Nysa 11 12 24 -12 8
15 Goczałkowice Zdrój 11 11 16 -5 11
16 Warta Gorzów 11 11 17 -6 14
17 Kluczbork 10 10 17 -7 12
18 Carina Gubin 11 8 22 -14 8
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions