Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction Audit: Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Star Starachowice Star Starachowice
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 47%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Siarka Tarnobrzeg

AI correctly predicted the Star Starachowice win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Star Starachowice Star Starachowice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Siarka Tarnobrzeg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Siarka Tarnobrzeg -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Star Starachowice 40.4% 33.7% +6.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 25.4% +4.0 pp Aligned
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 30.1% 40.9% -10.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Siarka Tarnobrzeg's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.1%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Star Starachowice win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Siarka Tarnobrzeg than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Star Starachowice higher (51.1% vs model 40.4%, 10.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Star Starachowice win 4–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Star Starachowice 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 30.1%
    • xG · Star Starachowice 1.41 — Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.19
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Star Starachowice 2.67 · Draw 3.54 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Star Starachowice 33.7% · Draw 25.4% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Star Starachowice 2.67 · Draw 3.54 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Star Starachowice 33.7% · Draw 25.4% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Star Starachowice win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10088677

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Star Starachowice win · Star Starachowice 4–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Star Starachowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Star Starachowice 1.41 — Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +6.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 4 Matches Track Star Starachowice Next Match Prediction Track Siarka Tarnobrzeg Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions