Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / KSZO 1929 vs Hetman Zamosc

Prediction Audit: KSZO 1929 vs Hetman Zamosc Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

KSZO 1929 KSZO 1929
Sep 27, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.44
2 1.16
xG Accuracy: 70%
Hetman Zamosc Hetman Zamosc

The model missed the final outcome (Hetman Zamosc win 1–2).

The model had projected KSZO 1929 at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 KSZO 1929 Hetman Zamosc ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices KSZO 1929 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: KSZO 1929 -32.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
KSZO 1929 41.9% 74.8% -32.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 15.5% +13.8 pp Model Edge
Hetman Zamosc 28.8% 9.6% +19.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates KSZO 1929's win probability at 74.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 32.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hetman Zamosc win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned KSZO 1929; match finished Hetman Zamosc

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on KSZO 1929 by 32.9 percentage points (74.8% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · KSZO 1929 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Hetman Zamosc 28.8%
    • xG · KSZO 1929 1.44 — Hetman Zamosc 1.16
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · KSZO 1929 1.18 · Draw 5.68 · Hetman Zamosc 9.16
    • Implied 1X2 · KSZO 1929 74.8% · Draw 15.5% · Hetman Zamosc 9.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · KSZO 1929 1.18 · Draw 5.68 · Hetman Zamosc 9.16
    • Implied 1X2 · KSZO 1929 74.8% · Draw 15.5% · Hetman Zamosc 9.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hetman Zamosc win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (33 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10108796

Closing Odds 1.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hetman Zamosc win · KSZO 1929 1–2 Hetman Zamosc
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours KSZO 1929; market prices KSZO 1929 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: KSZO 1929 1.44 xG vs Hetman Zamosc 1.16 → KSZO 1929 41.9%
  • Market: KSZO 1929 ~74.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions