Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Sokół Kolb. vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Prediction Audit: Sokół Kolb. vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sokół Kolb. Sokół Kolb.
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 85%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wiślanie Jaśkowice

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sokół Kolb. at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sokół Kolb. Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wiślanie Jaśkowice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wiślanie Jaśkowice -11.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sokół Kolb. 38.0% 29.1% +8.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.6% +3.0 pp Aligned
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 32.4% 44.2% -11.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Wiślanie Jaśkowice's win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Wiślanie Jaśkowice than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Sokół Kolb.; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sokół Kolb. by 11.8 percentage points (49.8% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sokół Kolb. 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 32.4%
    • xG · Sokół Kolb. 1.36 — Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.24
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sokół Kolb. 3.05 · Draw 3.34 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokół Kolb. 29.1% · Draw 26.6% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 44.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sokół Kolb. 3.05 · Draw 3.34 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokół Kolb. 29.1% · Draw 26.6% · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 44.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8679090

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sokół Kolb. 1–1 Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Sokół Kolb. vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Sokół Kolb. 1.36 — Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.7% · Probability edge: +5.1 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions