Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II

Prediction Audit: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Podlasie Biała Podlaska Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Sep 11, 2026 - 17:57
2 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 80%
⚽
KS Wieczysta Krakow II

AI correctly predicted the Podlasie Biała Podlaska win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska Podlasie Biała Podlaska ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +5.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 39.9% 44.9% -5.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 23.9% +5.5 pp Model Higher
KS Wieczysta Krakow II 30.6% 31.2% -0.6 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Podlasie Biała Podlaska more conservatively (34.4% vs model 39.9%, 5.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Podlasie Biała Podlaska win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 30.6%
    • xG · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.40 — KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.20
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:27 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.00 · Draw 3.75 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 44.9% · Draw 23.9% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 31.2%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:47 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.00 · Draw 3.75 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 44.9% · Draw 23.9% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 31.2%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:57 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Podlasie Biała Podlaska win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7036807

Closing Odds 3.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Podlasie Biała Podlaska win · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2–1 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:57:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.4 — KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.2% · Probability edge: +10.6 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions