Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Wisłoka Dębica vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Prediction Audit: Wisłoka Dębica vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wisłoka Dębica Wisłoka Dębica
Sep 06, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.21
0 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska Podlasie Biała Podlaska

The model missed the final outcome (Wisłoka Dębica win 1–0).

The model had projected Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska Wisłoka Dębica ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wisłoka Dębica 31.0% 33.8% -2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 26.1% +3.5 pp Aligned
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 39.5% 40.1% -0.7 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wisłoka Dębica win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Podlasie Biała Podlaska; match finished Wisłoka Dębica

Market lesson

The full-time result was Wisłoka Dębica win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 39.5%
    • xG · Wisłoka Dębica 1.21 — Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.39
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wisłoka Dębica 2.66 · Draw 3.45 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 33.8% · Draw 26.1% · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 40.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wisłoka Dębica 2.66 · Draw 3.45 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 33.8% · Draw 26.1% · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 40.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wisłoka Dębica win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6363805

Closing Odds 3.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wisłoka Dębica win · Wisłoka Dębica 1–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Wisłoka Dębica vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Wisłoka Dębica 1.21 — Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.5% · Probability edge: +4.3 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming III Liga - Group 4 Matches Track Wisłoka Dębica Next Match Prediction Track Podlasie Biała Podlaska Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions