Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / KS Wieczysta Krakow II vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction Audit: KS Wieczysta Krakow II vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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KS Wieczysta Krakow II
Sep 05, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 56%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Siarka Tarnobrzeg

The model missed the final outcome (Siarka Tarnobrzeg win 0–2).

The model had projected KS Wieczysta Krakow II at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 KS Wieczysta Krakow II Siarka Tarnobrzeg ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Siarka Tarnobrzeg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Siarka Tarnobrzeg -6.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
KS Wieczysta Krakow II 38.5% 36.9% +1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 31.9% 38.7% -6.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Siarka Tarnobrzeg's win probability at 38.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Siarka Tarnobrzeg win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned KS Wieczysta Krakow II; match finished Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on KS Wieczysta Krakow II by 6.7 percentage points (45.2% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 31.9%
    • xG · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.37 — Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.23
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 09:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 2.41 · Draw 3.64 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 36.9% · Draw 24.4% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 38.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 2.41 · Draw 3.64 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 36.9% · Draw 24.4% · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 38.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Siarka Tarnobrzeg win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6125211

Closing Odds 2.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Siarka Tarnobrzeg win · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 0–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: KS Wieczysta Krakow II vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.37 — Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions