Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Czarni Połaniec

Prediction Audit: Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Czarni Połaniec Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wiślanie Jaśkowice
Aug 28, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 64%
Czarni Połaniec Czarni Połaniec

AI correctly predicted the Czarni Połaniec win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Czarni Połaniec Czarni Połaniec ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wiślanie Jaśkowice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wiślanie Jaśkowice -22.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wiślanie Jaśkowice 32.4% 54.8% -22.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.5% +6.1 pp Model Higher
Czarni Połaniec 38.0% 21.8% +16.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Wiślanie Jaśkowice's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 22.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Czarni Połaniec win 0–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Czarni Połaniec higher (60.4% vs model 38.0%, 22.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Czarni Połaniec win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Czarni Połaniec 38.0%
    • xG · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.24 — Czarni Połaniec 1.36
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.62 · Draw 3.78 · Czarni Połaniec 4.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 54.8% · Draw 23.5% · Czarni Połaniec 21.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.62 · Draw 3.78 · Czarni Połaniec 4.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 54.8% · Draw 23.5% · Czarni Połaniec 21.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Czarni Połaniec win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 03:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4934990

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Czarni Połaniec win · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 0–1 Czarni Połaniec
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Czarni Połaniec
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.24 — Czarni Połaniec 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions