Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Wisłoka Dębica vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II

Prediction Audit: Wisłoka Dębica vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wisłoka Dębica Wisłoka Dębica
Aug 22, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
⚽
KS Wieczysta Krakow II

AI correctly predicted the KS Wieczysta Krakow II win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 KS Wieczysta Krakow II KS Wieczysta Krakow II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Wisłoka Dębica higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wisłoka Dębica -9.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wisłoka Dębica 34.7% 44.6% -9.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.2% +4.4 pp Aligned
KS Wieczysta Krakow II 35.6% 30.2% +5.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Wisłoka Dębica's win probability at 44.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (KS Wieczysta Krakow II win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Wisłoka Dębica. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced KS Wieczysta Krakow II higher (45.5% vs model 35.6%, 9.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (KS Wieczysta Krakow II win 0–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 35.6%
    • xG · Wisłoka Dębica 1.29 — KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.31
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wisłoka Dębica 1.99 · Draw 3.52 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 44.6% · Draw 25.2% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Wisłoka Dębica 1.99 · Draw 3.52 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Wisłoka Dębica 44.6% · Draw 25.2% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result KS Wieczysta Krakow II win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4236814

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result KS Wieczysta Krakow II win · Wisłoka Dębica 0–3 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Wisłoka Dębica vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Wisłoka Dębica 1.29 — KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions