Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Jarosław vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II

Prediction Audit: Jarosław vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jarosław Jarosław
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
⚽
KS Wieczysta Krakow II

The model missed the final outcome (KS Wieczysta Krakow II win 1–2).

The model had projected Jarosław at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jarosław KS Wieczysta Krakow II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +5.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jarosław 36.1% 38.9% -2.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 23.9% +5.7 pp Model Higher
KS Wieczysta Krakow II 34.2% 37.2% -3.0 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was KS Wieczysta Krakow II win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Jarosław; match finished KS Wieczysta Krakow II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jarosław by 5.7 percentage points (30.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jarosław 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 34.2%
    • xG · Jarosław 1.32 — KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.28
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jarosław 2.29 · Draw 3.72 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Jarosław 38.9% · Draw 23.9% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Jarosław 2.29 · Draw 3.72 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 2.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Jarosław 38.9% · Draw 23.9% · KS Wieczysta Krakow II 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result KS Wieczysta Krakow II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 07:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3391844

Closing Odds 3.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result KS Wieczysta Krakow II win · Jarosław 1–2 KS Wieczysta Krakow II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Jarosław vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Jarosław 1.32 — KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming III Liga - Group 4 Matches Track Jarosław Next Match Prediction Track KS Wieczysta Krakow II Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Jarosław & KS Wieczysta Krakow II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions