The model missed the final outcome (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win 4–0).
The model had projected Floridsdorfer AC at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Floridsdorfer AC Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 27.5% | 41.2% | -13.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.0% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Floridsdorfer AC | 43.4% | 31.8% | +11.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz's win probability at 41.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Floridsdorfer AC; match finished Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Floridsdorfer AC by 13.8 percentage points (57.1% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Floridsdorfer AC 43.3%
- xG · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 1.13 — Floridsdorfer AC 1.47
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 2.31 · Draw 3.53 · Floridsdorfer AC 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 41.2% · Draw 27.0% · Floridsdorfer AC 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 2.31 · Draw 3.53 · Floridsdorfer AC 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 41.2% · Draw 27.0% · Floridsdorfer AC 31.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | SKN ST. Polten | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 18 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz II | 7 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 | First Vienna | 7 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | SKU Amstetten | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Austria Salzburg | 7 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Liefering | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Floridsdorfer AC | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 7 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Wacker Innsbruck | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 | Voitsberg | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | SV Kapfenberg | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
| 13 | WSPG Wels | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Admira Wacker | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | SKN ST. Polten | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
