Predictions / Football / Austria. 2. Liga / SKN ST. Polten vs FC BW Linz

Prediction Audit: SKN ST. Polten vs FC BW Linz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SKN ST. Polten SKN ST. Polten
Aug 14, 2026 - 18:30
0 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 64%
FC BW Linz FC BW Linz

The model missed the final outcome (FC BW Linz win 0–1).

The model had projected SKN ST. Polten at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SKN ST. Polten FC BW Linz ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FC BW Linz higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC BW Linz -12.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SKN ST. Polten 40.9% 32.7% +8.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 25.0% +4.4 pp Aligned
FC BW Linz 29.7% 42.3% -12.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FC BW Linz's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC BW Linz win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FC BW Linz than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned SKN ST. Polten; match finished FC BW Linz

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SKN ST. Polten by 12.6 percentage points (53.5% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SKN ST. Polten 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · FC BW Linz 29.6%
    • xG · SKN ST. Polten 1.42 — FC BW Linz 1.18
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SKN ST. Polten 2.91 · Draw 3.80 · FC BW Linz 2.25
    • Implied 1X2 · SKN ST. Polten 32.7% · Draw 25.0% · FC BW Linz 42.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SKN ST. Polten 2.91 · Draw 3.80 · FC BW Linz 2.25
    • Implied 1X2 · SKN ST. Polten 32.7% · Draw 25.0% · FC BW Linz 42.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC BW Linz win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3235734

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC BW Linz win · SKN ST. Polten 0–1 FC BW Linz
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Liga
  • Fixture: SKN ST. Polten vs FC BW Linz
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): SKN ST. Polten 1.42 — FC BW Linz 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Liga 2. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC BW Linz 7 6 0 1 18
2 First Vienna 7 5 1 1 16
3 Floridsdorfer AC 7 4 1 2 13
4 SKU Amstetten 7 3 3 1 12
5 Austria Vienna (Am) 7 4 0 3 12
6 Wacker Innsbruck 7 3 2 2 11
7 Austria Salzburg 7 3 1 3 10
8 FC Liefering 7 3 1 3 10
9 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 7 3 1 3 10
10 SKN ST. Polten 7 3 0 4 9
11 Admira Wacker 7 3 0 4 9
12 Voitsberg 7 2 3 2 9
13 Sturm Graz II 7 2 2 3 8
14 Rapid Wien II 7 2 0 5 6
15 WSPG Wels 7 1 1 5 4
16 SV Kapfenberg 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC BW Linz 7 20 4 +16 18
2 Sturm Graz II 7 15 18 -3 8
3 First Vienna 7 14 7 +7 16
4 SKU Amstetten 7 14 11 +3 12
5 Austria Salzburg 7 14 12 +2 10
6 FC Liefering 7 14 15 -1 10
7 Floridsdorfer AC 7 13 10 +3 13
8 Austria Vienna (Am) 7 13 11 +2 12
9 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 7 11 12 -1 10
10 Wacker Innsbruck 7 10 8 +2 11
11 Voitsberg 7 10 12 -2 9
12 SV Kapfenberg 7 9 17 -8 3
13 WSPG Wels 7 8 17 -9 4
14 Admira Wacker 7 7 8 -1 9
15 Rapid Wien II 7 7 17 -10 6
16 SKN ST. Polten 7 6 6 0 9