Predictions / Football / Austria. 2. Liga / Floridsdorfer AC vs SKU Amstetten

Prediction Audit: Floridsdorfer AC vs SKU Amstetten Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Floridsdorfer AC Floridsdorfer AC
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.45
2 1.15
xG Accuracy: 68%
SKU Amstetten SKU Amstetten

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Floridsdorfer AC at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Floridsdorfer AC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices SKU Amstetten higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SKU Amstetten -14.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Floridsdorfer AC 42.4% 29.3% +13.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.3% 27.4% +1.9 pp Aligned
SKU Amstetten 28.4% 43.3% -14.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates SKU Amstetten's win probability at 43.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.4%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SKU Amstetten than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Floridsdorfer AC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Floridsdorfer AC by 14.9 percentage points (57.3% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Floridsdorfer AC 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · SKU Amstetten 28.4%
    • xG · Floridsdorfer AC 1.45 — SKU Amstetten 1.15
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Floridsdorfer AC 3.25 · Draw 3.48 · SKU Amstetten 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Floridsdorfer AC 29.3% · Draw 27.4% · SKU Amstetten 43.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Floridsdorfer AC 3.25 · Draw 3.48 · SKU Amstetten 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Floridsdorfer AC 29.3% · Draw 27.4% · SKU Amstetten 43.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3361282

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Floridsdorfer AC 2–2 SKU Amstetten
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Liga
  • Fixture: Floridsdorfer AC vs SKU Amstetten
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Floridsdorfer AC 1.45 — SKU Amstetten 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Floridsdorfer AC
  • Model: 42.4% · Implied: 29.3% · Probability edge: +13.0 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Liga 2. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC BW Linz 7 6 0 1 18
2 First Vienna 7 5 1 1 16
3 Floridsdorfer AC 7 4 1 2 13
4 SKU Amstetten 7 3 3 1 12
5 Austria Vienna (Am) 7 4 0 3 12
6 Wacker Innsbruck 7 3 2 2 11
7 Austria Salzburg 7 3 1 3 10
8 FC Liefering 7 3 1 3 10
9 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 7 3 1 3 10
10 SKN ST. Polten 7 3 0 4 9
11 Admira Wacker 7 3 0 4 9
12 Voitsberg 7 2 3 2 9
13 Sturm Graz II 7 2 2 3 8
14 Rapid Wien II 7 2 0 5 6
15 WSPG Wels 7 1 1 5 4
16 SV Kapfenberg 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC BW Linz 7 20 4 +16 18
2 Sturm Graz II 7 15 18 -3 8
3 First Vienna 7 14 7 +7 16
4 SKU Amstetten 7 14 11 +3 12
5 Austria Salzburg 7 14 12 +2 10
6 FC Liefering 7 14 15 -1 10
7 Floridsdorfer AC 7 13 10 +3 13
8 Austria Vienna (Am) 7 13 11 +2 12
9 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 7 11 12 -1 10
10 Wacker Innsbruck 7 10 8 +2 11
11 Voitsberg 7 10 12 -2 9
12 SV Kapfenberg 7 9 17 -8 3
13 WSPG Wels 7 8 17 -9 4
14 Admira Wacker 7 7 8 -1 9
15 Rapid Wien II 7 7 17 -10 6
16 SKN ST. Polten 7 6 6 0 9