Predictions / Football / Gabon. Championnat D1 / Bouenguidi vs Pélican

Prediction Audit: Bouenguidi vs Pélican Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bouenguidi Bouenguidi
Jul 04, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 64%
Pélican Pélican

The model missed the final outcome (Pélican win 0–1).

The model had projected Bouenguidi at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bouenguidi Pélican ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Bouenguidi; match finished Pélican

Market lesson

The full-time result was Pélican win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 04, 2026 · 21:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bouenguidi 1.31 — Pélican 1.29
  2. Jul 04, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Pélican win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 00:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3493502

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pélican win · Bouenguidi 0–1 Pélican
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Championnat D1
  • Fixture: Bouenguidi vs Pélican
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Bouenguidi 1.31 — Pélican 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Championnat D1 Championnat D1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mangasport 26 20 1 5 61
2 Stade Mandji 26 17 4 5 55
3 Ogooue FC 26 13 5 8 44
4 Oyem AC 26 13 4 9 43
5 Vautour Club 26 12 7 7 43
6 Cercle Mbéri 26 11 9 6 42
7 US Oyem 26 10 7 9 37
8 FC 105 26 11 3 12 36
9 Pélican 26 9 5 12 32
10 Stade Migoveen 26 8 7 11 31
11 Bitam 26 9 4 13 31
12 Lozo 26 7 7 12 28
13 Bouenguidi 26 3 10 13 19
14 Dikaki 26 1 3 22 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mangasport 26 50 18 +32 61
2 Stade Mandji 26 41 16 +25 55
3 Ogooue FC 26 39 25 +14 44
4 Oyem AC 26 38 25 +13 43
5 Pélican 26 34 33 +1 32
6 FC 105 26 33 36 -3 36
7 Vautour Club 26 31 22 +9 43
8 US Oyem 26 31 29 +2 37
9 Cercle Mbéri 26 30 20 +10 42
10 Bitam 26 28 49 -21 31
11 Lozo 26 22 27 -5 28
12 Stade Migoveen 26 21 29 -8 31
13 Bouenguidi 26 21 34 -13 19
14 Dikaki 26 17 73 -56 6