Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Atlético Tembetary vs Independiente F.b.c.

Prediction Audit: Atlético Tembetary vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atlético Tembetary Atlético Tembetary
Jul 07, 2026 - 22:00
2 1.44
2 1.16
xG Accuracy: 68%
Independiente F.b.c. Independiente F.b.c.

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Atlético Tembetary at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atlético Tembetary Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Atlético Tembetary; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 07, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Atlético Tembetary 1.44 — Independiente F.b.c. 1.16
  2. Jul 07, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 10:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2984163

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Atlético Tembetary 2–2 Independiente F.b.c.
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Atlético Tembetary vs Independiente F.b.c.
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-07 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Tembetary 1.44 — Independiente F.b.c. 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 11 6 10 39
7 Paraguari AC 27 11 5 11 38
8 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
9 Atlético Tembetary 27 10 6 11 36
10 Resistencia 27 9 8 10 35
11 Fernando De La Mora 26 9 7 10 34
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 6 11 10 29
13 3 de Noviembre 27 6 8 13 26
14 Guairena FC 26 6 7 13 25
15 Tacuary 27 4 12 11 24
16 Encarnación 27 6 4 17 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Atlético Tembetary 27 39 42 -3 36
5 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
6 Paraguari AC 27 36 35 +1 38
7 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
8 3 de Noviembre 27 33 40 -7 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 32 39 -7 39
11 Resistencia 27 31 32 -1 35
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 31 37 -6 29
13 Fernando De La Mora 26 30 35 -5 34
14 Tacuary 27 30 43 -13 24
15 Encarnación 27 25 39 -14 22
16 Guairena FC 26 22 35 -13 25