Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola Pro / CODM Meknès vs FAR Rabat

Prediction Audit: CODM Meknès vs FAR Rabat Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CODM Meknès CODM Meknès
Jul 02, 2026 - 17:00
3 0.95
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
FAR Rabat FAR Rabat

The model missed the final outcome (CODM Meknès win 3–2).

The model had projected FAR Rabat at 41.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FAR Rabat CODM Meknès ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FAR Rabat higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FAR Rabat -15.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CODM Meknès 26.4% 14.3% +12.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 32.1% 28.4% +3.7 pp Aligned
FAR Rabat 41.5% 57.3% -15.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FAR Rabat's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.5%, a difference of 15.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CODM Meknès win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FAR Rabat than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FAR Rabat by 15.9 percentage points (57.4% vs model 41.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 02, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CODM Meknès 26.4% · Draw 32.1% · FAR Rabat 41.5%
    • xG · CODM Meknès 0.95 — FAR Rabat 1.25
  2. Jul 02, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CODM Meknès 6.22 · Draw 3.13 · FAR Rabat 1.55
    • Implied 1X2 · CODM Meknès 14.3% · Draw 28.4% · FAR Rabat 57.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · CODM Meknès 6.22 · Draw 3.13 · FAR Rabat 1.55
    • Implied 1X2 · CODM Meknès 14.3% · Draw 28.4% · FAR Rabat 57.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CODM Meknès win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1485154

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CODM Meknès win · CODM Meknès 3–2 FAR Rabat
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Botola Pro
  • Fixture: CODM Meknès vs FAR Rabat
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): CODM Meknès 0.95 — FAR Rabat 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.2)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Botola Pro Matches Track CODM Meknès Next Match Prediction Track FAR Rabat Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for CODM Meknès & FAR Rabat!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Botola Pro Botola Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maghreb Fès 30 16 11 3 59
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 16 9 5 57
3 Raja Casablanca 30 16 8 6 56
4 FAR Rabat 30 13 16 1 55
5 Wydad AC 30 13 4 13 43
6 Difaa EL Jadida 30 9 13 8 40
7 Ittihad Tanger 30 9 12 9 39
8 FUS Rabat 30 9 10 11 37
9 Kawkab Marrakech 30 8 12 10 36
10 CODM Meknès 30 9 9 12 36
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 8 9 13 33
12 Hassania Agadir 30 8 9 13 33
13 UTS Rabat 30 6 13 11 31
14 Yacoub El Mansour 30 7 9 14 30
15 Olympique Dcheïra 30 7 9 14 30
16 Olympique Safi 30 3 13 14 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FAR Rabat 30 45 22 +23 55
2 Renaissance Berkane 30 44 27 +17 57
3 Maghreb Fès 30 40 17 +23 59
4 Raja Casablanca 30 39 19 +20 56
5 Wydad AC 30 39 33 +6 43
6 Yacoub El Mansour 30 34 44 -10 30
7 UTS Rabat 30 32 40 -8 31
8 FUS Rabat 30 31 36 -5 37
9 Difaa EL Jadida 30 30 34 -4 40
10 Olympique Dcheïra 30 29 40 -11 30
11 CR Khemis Zemamra 30 28 37 -9 33
12 Kawkab Marrakech 30 27 26 +1 36
13 Ittihad Tanger 30 27 31 -4 39
14 Hassania Agadir 30 27 39 -12 33
15 CODM Meknès 30 24 33 -9 36
16 Olympique Safi 30 24 42 -18 22