Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Wigry Suwałki

Prediction Audit: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Jul 17, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 57%
Wigry Suwałki Wigry Suwałki

The model missed the final outcome (Wigry Suwałki win 0–2).

The model had projected Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 48.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Wigry Suwałki ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -23.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 48.1% 71.6% -23.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.2% 15.4% +10.8 pp Model Edge
Wigry Suwałki 25.7% 13.0% +12.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's win probability at 71.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.1%, a difference of 23.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wigry Suwałki win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki; match finished Wigry Suwałki

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki by 23.5 percentage points (71.6% vs model 48.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 48.1% · Draw 26.2% · Wigry Suwałki 25.7%
    • xG · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.33 — Wigry Suwałki 1.27
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.20 · Draw 5.58 · Wigry Suwałki 6.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 71.6% · Draw 15.4% · Wigry Suwałki 13.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.20 · Draw 5.58 · Wigry Suwałki 6.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 71.6% · Draw 15.4% · Wigry Suwałki 13.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wigry Suwałki win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 13:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3052013

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wigry Suwałki win · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–2 Wigry Suwałki
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Wigry Suwałki
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.33 — Wigry Suwałki 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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