Prediction Audit: MTE 1904 vs Besiktas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

MTE 1904

Jul 05, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 49%

Besiktas

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Besiktas at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Besiktas Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
MTE 1904	33.3%	5.7%	+27.6 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	7.8%	+21.8 pp	Model Edge
Besiktas	37.1%	86.5%	-49.4 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Besiktas's win probability at 86.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 49.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Besiktas; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Besiktas by 49.4 percentage points (86.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 05, 2026 · 19:51 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · MTE 1904 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Besiktas 37.0%
- xG · MTE 1904 1.26 — Besiktas 1.34
Jul 05, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · MTE 1904 15.53 · Draw 11.26 · Besiktas 1.02
- Implied 1X2 · MTE 1904 5.7% · Draw 7.8% · Besiktas 86.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 05, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · MTE 1904 15.53 · Draw 11.26 · Besiktas 1.02
- Implied 1X2 · MTE 1904 5.7% · Draw 7.8% · Besiktas 86.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 24/100 · Not reliable

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (49 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 6/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1670715

Closing Odds 1.02

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · MTE 1904 0–0 Besiktas

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Besiktas; market prices Besiktas instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: MTE 1904 1.26 xG vs Besiktas 1.34 → Besiktas 37.1%
Market: Besiktas ~86.5% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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