AI correctly predicted the Riga win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Riga Riga ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leevon / PPK | 18.1% | 5.9% | +12.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 22.0% | 7.2% | +14.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Riga | 59.8% | 86.9% | -27.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Riga's win probability at 86.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 59.8%, a difference of 27.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Riga win 2–3).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Riga higher (86.9% vs model 59.8%, 27.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Riga win 2–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 10, 2026 · 19:48 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 18.1% · Draw 22.0% · Riga 59.9%
- xG · Leevon / PPK 1.13 — Riga 1.47
-
Jul 10, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leevon / PPK 15.36 · Draw 12.54 · Riga 1.04
- Implied 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 5.9% · Draw 7.2% · Riga 86.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leevon / PPK 15.36 · Draw 12.54 · Riga 1.04
- Implied 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 5.9% · Draw 7.2% · Riga 86.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 10, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Riga win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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