The model missed the final outcome (Hibernians win 0–2).
The model had projected Sliema Wanderers at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sliema Wanderers Hibernians ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sliema Wanderers | 39.5% | 41.2% | -1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 29.8% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Hibernians | 31.0% | 29.0% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Hibernians win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Sliema Wanderers; match finished Hibernians
Market lesson
The full-time result was Hibernians win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sliema Wanderers 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Hibernians 31.0%
- xG · Sliema Wanderers 1.39 — Hibernians 1.21
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sliema Wanderers 2.22 · Draw 3.07 · Hibernians 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · Sliema Wanderers 41.2% · Draw 29.8% · Hibernians 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sliema Wanderers 2.22 · Draw 3.07 · Hibernians 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · Sliema Wanderers 41.2% · Draw 29.8% · Hibernians 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hibernians win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floriana | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Valletta FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Marsaxlokk | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Birkirkara | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Mosta | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Sliema Wanderers | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Balzan FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Hibernians | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Floriana | 6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 13 |
| 2 | Valletta FC | 6 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 13 |
| 3 | Marsaxlokk | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 4 | Birkirkara | 6 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Balzan FC | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Mosta | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sliema Wanderers | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Hibernians | 6 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 5 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 1 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 6 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
