Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga I / Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti

Prediction Audit: Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova
Aug 09, 2026 - 18:30
0 2.00
1 1.48
xG Accuracy: 51%
Arges Pitesti Arges Pitesti

The model missed the final outcome (Arges Pitesti win 0–1).

The model had projected Universitatea Craiova at 51.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Universitatea Craiova Arges Pitesti ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Universitatea Craiova higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Universitatea Craiova -8.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Universitatea Craiova 51.9% 60.1% -8.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.5% 24.1% +0.4 pp Aligned
Arges Pitesti 23.6% 15.8% +7.8 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Universitatea Craiova's win probability at 60.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 51.9%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Arges Pitesti win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Universitatea Craiova. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Universitatea Craiova by 8.2 percentage points (60.1% vs model 51.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Universitatea Craiova 51.9% · Draw 24.5% · Arges Pitesti 23.6%
    • xG · Universitatea Craiova 2.00 — Arges Pitesti 1.48
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Universitatea Craiova 1.58 · Draw 3.93 · Arges Pitesti 6.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Universitatea Craiova 60.1% · Draw 24.1% · Arges Pitesti 15.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Universitatea Craiova 1.58 · Draw 3.93 · Arges Pitesti 6.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Universitatea Craiova 60.1% · Draw 24.1% · Arges Pitesti 15.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Arges Pitesti win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 59/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2966012

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Arges Pitesti win · Universitatea Craiova 0–1 Arges Pitesti
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 18:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 51.9% · Draw 24.5% · Away 23.6%
  • xG (showing): Universitatea Craiova 2.0 — Arges Pitesti 1.48 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 32.5% · Over 2.5 67.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 68.0% · No 32.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 7 2 1 23
2 Rapid 10 6 3 1 21
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 20
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 6 1 3 19
5 Universitatea Cluj 9 5 0 4 15
6 Farul Constanta 10 3 5 2 14
7 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 3 4 3 13
8 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 4 1 4 13
9 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 3 4 3 13
10 Uta Arad 10 3 3 4 12
11 FCSB 10 3 3 4 12
12 FC Botosani 10 2 5 3 11
13 Arges Pitesti 10 3 2 5 11
14 Oţelul 10 2 4 4 10
15 FC Voluntari 10 2 2 6 8
16 Csikszereda 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 24 9 +15 20
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 23 7 +16 23
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 15 14 +1 13
4 Rapid 10 14 6 +8 21
5 FC Botosani 10 14 12 +2 11
6 Universitatea Cluj 9 14 13 +1 15
7 Farul Constanta 10 14 14 0 14
8 Uta Arad 10 14 15 -1 12
9 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 13 12 +1 19
10 FCSB 10 13 17 -4 12
11 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 11 9 +2 13
12 Oţelul 10 11 15 -4 10
13 FC Voluntari 10 9 22 -13 8
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 7 10 -3 13
15 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 11
16 Csikszereda 10 6 23 -17 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 10 4.0 1.6 +2.4 21
2 Farul Constanta 10 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3.6 3.0 +0.6 23
4 FCSB 10 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
5 FC Voluntari 10 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 10 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 10 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 10 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 9 1.0 1.7 -0.7 15
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 1.4 2.2 -0.8 19
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 10 — — — 20
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 — — — 13
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 — — — 13
15 Uta Arad 10 — — — 12
16 Oţelul 10 — — — 10
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