Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga I / Oţelul vs CFR 1907 Cluj

Prediction Audit: Oţelul vs CFR 1907 Cluj Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Oţelul Oţelul
Jul 18, 2026 - 15:30
2 2.52
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 80%
CFR 1907 Cluj CFR 1907 Cluj

AI correctly predicted the Oţelul win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Oţelul Oţelul ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-0, 3-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Oţelul considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Oţelul +33.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Oţelul 63.4% 29.5% +33.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 19.7% 29.5% -9.8 pp Market Higher
CFR 1907 Cluj 16.9% 40.9% -24.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Oţelul's win probability at 63.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.5%, a difference of 33.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Oţelul win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.80) — 3 goals materialised
  • Oţelul attacking xG significantly stronger (2.52 vs 1.28)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Oţelul more conservatively (29.5% vs model 63.4%, 33.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Oţelul win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 20:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Oţelul 63.4% · Draw 19.8% · CFR 1907 Cluj 16.9%
    • xG · Oţelul 2.52 — CFR 1907 Cluj 1.28
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Oţelul 3.23 · Draw 3.23 · CFR 1907 Cluj 2.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Oţelul 29.5% · Draw 29.5% · CFR 1907 Cluj 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Oţelul 3.23 · Draw 3.23 · CFR 1907 Cluj 2.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Oţelul 29.5% · Draw 29.5% · CFR 1907 Cluj 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Oţelul win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 20/100 · Not reliable
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (87%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 5/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1486293

Closing Odds 3.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Oţelul win · Oţelul 2–1 CFR 1907 Cluj
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Oţelul; market prices CFR 1907 Cluj instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Oţelul 2.52 xG vs CFR 1907 Cluj 1.28 → Oţelul 63.4%
  • Market: CFR 1907 Cluj ~29.5% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 7 2 1 23
2 Rapid 10 6 3 1 21
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 20
4 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 6 1 3 19
5 Universitatea Cluj 9 5 0 4 15
6 Farul Constanta 10 3 5 2 14
7 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 3 4 3 13
8 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 4 1 4 13
9 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 3 4 3 13
10 Uta Arad 10 3 3 4 12
11 FCSB 10 3 3 4 12
12 FC Botosani 10 2 5 3 11
13 Arges Pitesti 10 3 2 5 11
14 Oţelul 10 2 4 4 10
15 FC Voluntari 10 2 2 6 8
16 Csikszereda 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 24 9 +15 20
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 23 7 +16 23
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 15 14 +1 13
4 Rapid 10 14 6 +8 21
5 FC Botosani 10 14 12 +2 11
6 Universitatea Cluj 9 14 13 +1 15
7 Farul Constanta 10 14 14 0 14
8 Uta Arad 10 14 15 -1 12
9 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 13 12 +1 19
10 FCSB 10 13 17 -4 12
11 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 11 9 +2 13
12 Oţelul 10 11 15 -4 10
13 FC Voluntari 10 9 22 -13 8
14 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 7 10 -3 13
15 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 11
16 Csikszereda 10 6 23 -17 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Rapid 10 4.0 1.6 +2.4 21
2 Farul Constanta 10 1.7 1.0 +0.7 14
3 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3.6 3.0 +0.6 23
4 FCSB 10 1.9 1.4 +0.5 12
5 FC Voluntari 10 2.9 2.6 +0.3 8
6 Csikszereda 10 1.3 1.3 0.0 1
7 FC Botosani 10 2.6 2.9 -0.3 11
8 Arges Pitesti 10 1.4 1.9 -0.5 11
9 Universitatea Cluj 9 1.0 1.7 -0.7 15
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 10 1.4 2.2 -0.8 19
11 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 10 1.4 3.6 -2.2 13
12 Universitatea Craiova 10 — — — 20
13 Corvinul Hunedoara 10 — — — 13
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 9 — — — 13
15 Uta Arad 10 — — — 12
16 Oţelul 10 — — — 10
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