Prediction Audit: Pardubice U19 vs Teplice U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pardubice U19

Aug 12, 2026 - 10:00

3 1.32

4 1.28

xG Accuracy: 30%

⚽

Teplice U19

The model missed the final outcome (Teplice U19 win 3–4).

The model had projected Pardubice U19 at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Pardubice U19 Teplice U19 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Pardubice U19	36.1%	39.1%	-3.0 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	24.6%	+5.1 pp	Model Higher
Teplice U19	34.2%	36.3%	-2.0 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.6%, a difference of 5.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Teplice U19 win 3–4.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
1X2: model leaned Pardubice U19; match finished Teplice U19

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pardubice U19 by 5.1 percentage points (31.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 12, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pardubice U19 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Teplice U19 34.2%
- xG · Pardubice U19 1.32 — Teplice U19 1.28
Aug 12, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pardubice U19 2.30 · Draw 3.66 · Teplice U19 2.48
- Implied 1X2 · Pardubice U19 39.1% · Draw 24.6% · Teplice U19 36.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 12, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Pardubice U19 2.30 · Draw 3.66 · Teplice U19 2.48
- Implied 1X2 · Pardubice U19 39.1% · Draw 24.6% · Teplice U19 36.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 12, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Teplice U19 win · 3–4
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 74/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3090597

Closing Odds 3.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Teplice U19 win · Pardubice U19 3–4 Teplice U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. Liga U19
Fixture: Pardubice U19 vs Teplice U19
Kickoff: 2026-08-12 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Pardubice U19 1.32 — Teplice U19 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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