Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 1. Liga U19 / Teplice U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19

Prediction Audit: Teplice U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Teplice U19
Aug 15, 2026 - 08:30
1 1.33
2 1.27
xG Accuracy: 75%
Baník Ostrava U19 Baník Ostrava U19

The model missed the final outcome (Baník Ostrava U19 win 1–2).

The model had projected Teplice U19 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Teplice U19 Baník Ostrava U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Baník Ostrava U19 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Baník Ostrava U19 -5.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Teplice U19 36.6% 35.3% +1.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.3% +4.3 pp Aligned
Baník Ostrava U19 33.8% 39.4% -5.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Baník Ostrava U19's win probability at 39.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Baník Ostrava U19 win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Baník Ostrava U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Teplice U19; match finished Baník Ostrava U19

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Teplice U19 by 5.6 percentage points (42.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Teplice U19 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Baník Ostrava U19 33.8%
    • xG · Teplice U19 1.33 — Baník Ostrava U19 1.27
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Teplice U19 2.52 · Draw 3.51 · Baník Ostrava U19 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Teplice U19 35.3% · Draw 25.3% · Baník Ostrava U19 39.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Teplice U19 2.52 · Draw 3.51 · Baník Ostrava U19 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Teplice U19 35.3% · Draw 25.3% · Baník Ostrava U19 39.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Baník Ostrava U19 win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3337835

Closing Odds 2.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Baník Ostrava U19 win · Teplice U19 1–2 Baník Ostrava U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Liga U19
  • Fixture: Teplice U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Teplice U19 1.33 — Baník Ostrava U19 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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