Prediction Audit: Sparta Praha U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sparta Praha U19

Sep 25, 2026 - 09:00

2 1.25

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 56%

Mladá Boleslav U19

The model missed the final outcome (Sparta Praha U19 win 2–0).

The model had projected Mladá Boleslav U19 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Mladá Boleslav U19 Sparta Praha U19 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sparta Praha U19	32.9%	40.1%	-7.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.8%	+5.8 pp	Model Higher
Mladá Boleslav U19	37.5%	36.2%	+1.4 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Sparta Praha U19's win probability at 40.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sparta Praha U19 win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sparta Praha U19. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Mladá Boleslav U19; match finished Sparta Praha U19
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mladá Boleslav U19 by 7.2 percentage points (44.7% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 25, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sparta Praha U19 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Mladá Boleslav U19 37.6%
- xG · Sparta Praha U19 1.25 — Mladá Boleslav U19 1.35
Sep 25, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sparta Praha U19 2.22 · Draw 3.74 · Mladá Boleslav U19 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Sparta Praha U19 40.1% · Draw 23.8% · Mladá Boleslav U19 36.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 25, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sparta Praha U19 2.22 · Draw 3.74 · Mladá Boleslav U19 2.46
- Implied 1X2 · Sparta Praha U19 40.1% · Draw 23.8% · Mladá Boleslav U19 36.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 25, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Sparta Praha U19 win · 2–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9560468

Closing Odds 2.22

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sparta Praha U19 win · Sparta Praha U19 2–0 Mladá Boleslav U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 1. Liga U19
Fixture: Sparta Praha U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19
Kickoff: 2026-09-25 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Sparta Praha U19 1.25 — Mladá Boleslav U19 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 27.1% · Probability edge: +24.7 pts · Est. EV: +86.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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