Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver / Torpedo Miass vs Zenit 2

Prediction Audit: Torpedo Miass vs Zenit 2 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Torpedo Miass Torpedo Miass
Jul 25, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Zenit 2 Zenit 2

The model missed the final outcome (Zenit 2 win 0–1).

The model had projected Torpedo Miass at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Torpedo Miass Zenit 2 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Zenit 2 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zenit 2 -26.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Torpedo Miass 36.1% 15.5% +20.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.8% +5.9 pp Model Higher
Zenit 2 34.2% 60.7% -26.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Zenit 2's win probability at 60.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 26.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Zenit 2 win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Torpedo Miass; match finished Zenit 2

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Torpedo Miass by 26.5 percentage points (62.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Torpedo Miass 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Zenit 2 34.2%
    • xG · Torpedo Miass 1.32 — Zenit 2 1.28
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Torpedo Miass 5.80 · Draw 3.78 · Zenit 2 1.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Torpedo Miass 15.5% · Draw 23.8% · Zenit 2 60.7%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Torpedo Miass 5.80 · Draw 3.78 · Zenit 2 1.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Torpedo Miass 15.5% · Draw 23.8% · Zenit 2 60.7%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Zenit 2 win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453433

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zenit 2 win · Torpedo Miass 0–1 Zenit 2
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Russian Second League Division A Silver
  • Fixture: Torpedo Miass vs Zenit-2 St. Petersburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Torpedo Miass 1.32 — Zenit-2 St. Petersburg 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Second League A - Division A Silver Matches Track Torpedo Miass Next Match Prediction Track Zenit 2 Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Torpedo Miass & Zenit 2!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Second League A - Division A Silver Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zenit 2 9 7 2 0 23
2 Amkar 9 6 1 2 19
3 Tyumen 10 6 1 3 19
4 Torpedo Miass 9 4 0 5 12
5 Dinamo Stavropol 9 2 2 5 8
6 Irtysh Omsk 10 2 1 7 7
7 Dinamo Moskva II 10 2 1 7 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zenit 2 9 25 4 +21 23
2 Amkar 9 22 11 +11 19
3 Tyumen 10 22 14 +8 19
4 Torpedo Miass 9 15 13 +2 12
5 Irtysh Omsk 10 9 22 -13 7
6 Dinamo Stavropol 9 8 16 -8 8
7 Dinamo Moskva II 10 7 28 -21 7
Second League A - Division A Silver Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver Predictions