Predictions / Football / Russia. Cup / Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov

Prediction Audit: Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baltika Baltika
Sep 02, 2026 - 17:45
0(3) 1.42
0(5) 1.18
xG Accuracy: 49%
Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Baltika at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Baltika Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Baltika higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Baltika -8.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Baltika 40.9% 49.3% -8.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 27.6% +1.8 pp Aligned
Krylia Sovetov 29.7% 23.1% +6.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Baltika's win probability at 49.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Baltika. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Baltika; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Baltika by 8.3 percentage points (49.2% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Baltika 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Krylia Sovetov 29.6%
    • xG · Baltika 1.42 — Krylia Sovetov 1.18
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Baltika 1.95 · Draw 3.48 · Krylia Sovetov 4.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Baltika 49.3% · Draw 27.6% · Krylia Sovetov 23.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Baltika 1.95 · Draw 3.48 · Krylia Sovetov 4.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Baltika 49.3% · Draw 27.6% · Krylia Sovetov 23.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 58/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5625794

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Baltika 0–0 Krylia Sovetov
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Baltika vs Krylia Sovetov
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Baltika 1.42 — Krylia Sovetov 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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