Predictions / Football / Russia. Cup / FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat

Prediction Audit: FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
Aug 05, 2026 - 17:45
1(5) 1.43
1(4) 1.17
xG Accuracy: 85%
Akhmat Akhmat

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected FC Krasnodar at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Krasnodar Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FC Krasnodar higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC Krasnodar -19.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Krasnodar 41.4% 60.5% -19.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 22.1% +7.3 pp Model Higher
Akhmat 29.2% 17.4% +11.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates FC Krasnodar's win probability at 60.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FC Krasnodar than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC Krasnodar; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Krasnodar by 19.1 percentage points (60.5% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 05, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Krasnodar 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Akhmat 29.3%
    • xG · FC Krasnodar 1.43 — Akhmat 1.17
  2. Aug 05, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Krasnodar 1.58 · Draw 4.33 · Akhmat 5.48
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Krasnodar 60.5% · Draw 22.1% · Akhmat 17.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 05, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Krasnodar 1.58 · Draw 4.33 · Akhmat 5.48
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Krasnodar 60.5% · Draw 22.1% · Akhmat 17.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 05, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2484363

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FC Krasnodar 1–1 Akhmat
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-05 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): FC Krasnodar 1.43 — Akhmat 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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