Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Feignies-Aulnoye vs Francs Borains

Prediction Audit: Feignies-Aulnoye vs Francs Borains Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Feignies-Aulnoye Feignies-Aulnoye
Jul 24, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 58%
Francs Borains Francs Borains

AI correctly predicted the Francs Borains win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Francs Borains Francs Borains ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Francs Borains considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Francs Borains +9.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Feignies-Aulnoye 34.2% 43.1% -8.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.8% -0.2 pp Aligned
Francs Borains 36.1% 27.1% +9.0 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Francs Borains's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.1%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Francs Borains win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Francs Borains.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Francs Borains more conservatively (27.1% vs model 36.1%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Francs Borains win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Feignies-Aulnoye 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Francs Borains 36.1%
    • xG · Feignies-Aulnoye 1.28 — Francs Borains 1.32
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Feignies-Aulnoye 2.06 · Draw 2.98 · Francs Borains 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Feignies-Aulnoye 43.1% · Draw 29.8% · Francs Borains 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 16:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Feignies-Aulnoye 2.06 · Draw 2.98 · Francs Borains 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Feignies-Aulnoye 43.1% · Draw 29.8% · Francs Borains 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Francs Borains win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453016

Closing Odds 3.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Francs Borains win · Feignies-Aulnoye 0–2 Francs Borains
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Feignies-Aulnoye vs Francs Borains
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Feignies-Aulnoye 1.28 — Francs Borains 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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