Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Schalke 04 II vs TSV Steinbach

Prediction Audit: Schalke 04 II vs TSV Steinbach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Schalke 04 II Schalke 04 II
Jul 18, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.23
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 64%
TSV Steinbach TSV Steinbach

AI correctly predicted the TSV Steinbach win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 TSV Steinbach TSV Steinbach ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Schalke 04 II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Schalke 04 II -9.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Schalke 04 II 31.9% 41.1% -9.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.0 pp Model Higher
TSV Steinbach 38.5% 34.3% +4.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Schalke 04 II's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (TSV Steinbach win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Schalke 04 II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced TSV Steinbach higher (47.7% vs model 38.5%, 9.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (TSV Steinbach win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 20:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Schalke 04 II 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · TSV Steinbach 38.5%
    • xG · Schalke 04 II 1.23 — TSV Steinbach 1.37
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Schalke 04 II 2.16 · Draw 3.62 · TSV Steinbach 2.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Schalke 04 II 41.1% · Draw 24.6% · TSV Steinbach 34.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Schalke 04 II 2.16 · Draw 3.62 · TSV Steinbach 2.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Schalke 04 II 41.1% · Draw 24.6% · TSV Steinbach 34.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result TSV Steinbach win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454601

Closing Odds 2.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result TSV Steinbach win · Schalke 04 II 0–1 TSV Steinbach
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Schalke 04 II vs TSV Steinbach Haiger
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Schalke 04 II 1.23 — TSV Steinbach Haiger 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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