Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Neratovice-Byškovice vs Čáslav

Prediction Audit: Neratovice-Byškovice vs Čáslav Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Neratovice-Byškovice Neratovice-Byškovice
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 60%
Čáslav Čáslav

AI correctly predicted the Čáslav win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Čáslav Čáslav ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Neratovice-Byškovice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Neratovice-Byškovice -20.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Neratovice-Byškovice 32.4% 53.2% -20.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.6% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Čáslav 38.0% 23.2% +14.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Neratovice-Byškovice's win probability at 53.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Čáslav win 0–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Čáslav higher (58.8% vs model 38.0%, 20.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Čáslav win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Neratovice-Byškovice 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Čáslav 38.0%
    • xG · Neratovice-Byškovice 1.24 — Čáslav 1.36
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Neratovice-Byškovice 1.70 · Draw 3.84 · Čáslav 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Neratovice-Byškovice 53.2% · Draw 23.6% · Čáslav 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Neratovice-Byškovice 1.70 · Draw 3.84 · Čáslav 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Neratovice-Byškovice 53.2% · Draw 23.6% · Čáslav 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Čáslav win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10096172

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Čáslav win · Neratovice-Byškovice 0–2 Čáslav
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL B
  • Fixture: Neratovice-Byškovice vs Čáslav
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Neratovice-Byškovice 1.24 — Čáslav 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.8% · Probability edge: +11.0 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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