Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Slovan Liberec II vs Benátky nad Jizerou

Prediction Audit: Slovan Liberec II vs Benátky nad Jizerou Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Slovan Liberec II Slovan Liberec II
Sep 26, 2026 - 08:15
0 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 33%
Benátky nad Jizerou Benátky nad Jizerou

The model missed the final outcome (Benátky nad Jizerou win 0–4).

The model had projected Slovan Liberec II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Slovan Liberec II Benátky nad Jizerou ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Slovan Liberec II 36.1% 39.5% -3.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.0% +3.7 pp Aligned
Benátky nad Jizerou 34.2% 34.5% -0.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Benátky nad Jizerou win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Slovan Liberec II; match finished Benátky nad Jizerou

Market lesson

The full-time result was Benátky nad Jizerou win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Slovan Liberec II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Benátky nad Jizerou 34.2%
    • xG · Slovan Liberec II 1.32 — Benátky nad Jizerou 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Slovan Liberec II 2.37 · Draw 3.40 · Benátky nad Jizerou 2.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Slovan Liberec II 38.2% · Draw 26.6% · Benátky nad Jizerou 35.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Slovan Liberec II 2.29 · Draw 3.48 · Benátky nad Jizerou 2.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Slovan Liberec II 39.5% · Draw 26.0% · Benátky nad Jizerou 34.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Benátky nad Jizerou win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 81/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10077313

Closing Odds 3.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Benátky nad Jizerou win · Slovan Liberec II 0–4 Benátky nad Jizerou
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL B
  • Fixture: Slovan Liberec II vs Benátky nad Jizerou
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Slovan Liberec II 1.32 — Benátky nad Jizerou 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 33.6% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +31.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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