Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Sokol Brozany vs Chrudim

Prediction Audit: Sokol Brozany vs Chrudim Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sokol Brozany Sokol Brozany
Sep 06, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Chrudim Chrudim

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sokol Brozany at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sokol Brozany Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sokol Brozany 35.2% 38.5% -3.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.9% +4.8 pp Aligned
Chrudim 35.2% 36.6% -1.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Sokol Brozany; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sokol Brozany 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Chrudim 35.2%
    • xG · Sokol Brozany 1.30 — Chrudim 1.30
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sokol Brozany 2.34 · Draw 3.66 · Chrudim 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokol Brozany 38.7% · Draw 24.7% · Chrudim 36.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sokol Brozany 2.35 · Draw 3.64 · Chrudim 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokol Brozany 38.5% · Draw 24.9% · Chrudim 36.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6363669

Closing Odds 3.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sokol Brozany 1–1 Chrudim
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL B
  • Fixture: Sokol Brozany vs Chrudim
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Sokol Brozany 1.3 — Chrudim 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.8% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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