Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Baník Souš vs Horní Ředice

Prediction Audit: Baník Souš vs Horní Ředice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baník Souš Baník Souš
Sep 05, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Horní Ředice Horní Ředice

The model missed the final outcome (Horní Ředice win 0–1).

The model had projected Baník Souš at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Baník Souš Horní Ředice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Baník Souš higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Baník Souš -30.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Baník Souš 40.4% 71.0% -30.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 16.6% +12.8 pp Model Edge
Horní Ředice 30.1% 12.3% +17.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Baník Souš's win probability at 71.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 30.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Horní Ředice win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Baník Souš; match finished Horní Ředice

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Baník Souš by 30.6 percentage points (71.0% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Baník Souš 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Horní Ředice 30.1%
    • xG · Baník Souš 1.41 — Horní Ředice 1.19
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Baník Souš 1.29 · Draw 5.52 · Horní Ředice 7.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Baník Souš 71.0% · Draw 16.6% · Horní Ředice 12.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Baník Souš 1.29 · Draw 5.52 · Horní Ředice 7.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Baník Souš 71.0% · Draw 16.6% · Horní Ředice 12.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Horní Ředice win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6138806

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Horní Ředice win · Baník Souš 0–1 Horní Ředice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Baník Souš; market prices Baník Souš instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Baník Souš 1.41 xG vs Horní Ředice 1.19 → Baník Souš 40.4%
  • Market: Baník Souš ~71.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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