Prediction Audit: Teplice II vs Sokol Brozany Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Teplice II

Aug 16, 2026 - 09:00

5 1.31

2 1.29

xG Accuracy: 30%

Sokol Brozany

AI correctly predicted the Teplice II win.

The match finished 5–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Teplice II Teplice II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Teplice II	35.6%	49.6%	-14.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.0%	+5.6 pp	Model Higher
Sokol Brozany	34.7%	26.3%	+8.4 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Teplice II's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 14.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Teplice II win 5–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Teplice II than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Teplice II higher (49.6% vs model 35.6%, 14.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Teplice II win 5–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Teplice II 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Sokol Brozany 34.7%
- xG · Teplice II 1.31 — Sokol Brozany 1.29
Aug 16, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Teplice II 1.82 · Draw 3.76 · Sokol Brozany 3.43
- Implied 1X2 · Teplice II 49.6% · Draw 24.0% · Sokol Brozany 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Teplice II 1.82 · Draw 3.76 · Sokol Brozany 3.43
- Implied 1X2 · Teplice II 49.6% · Draw 24.0% · Sokol Brozany 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Teplice II win · 5–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (14 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 06:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3644153

Closing Odds 1.82

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Teplice II win · Teplice II 5–2 Sokol Brozany

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. liga - CFL B
Fixture: Teplice II vs Sokol Brozany
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Teplice II 1.31 — Sokol Brozany 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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