Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Pardubice II vs Baník Souš

Prediction Audit: Pardubice II vs Baník Souš Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pardubice II Pardubice II
Aug 16, 2026 - 08:15
1 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Baník Souš Baník Souš

The model missed the final outcome (Pardubice II win 1–0).

The model had projected Baník Souš at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Baník Souš Pardubice II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Pardubice II -3.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pardubice II 33.3% 36.4% -3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.0% +2.7 pp Aligned
Baník Souš 37.1% 36.7% +0.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Pardubice II win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Baník Souš; match finished Pardubice II

Market lesson

The full-time result was Pardubice II win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pardubice II 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Baník Souš 37.0%
    • xG · Pardubice II 1.26 — Baník Souš 1.34
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pardubice II 2.49 · Draw 3.36 · Baník Souš 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Pardubice II 36.4% · Draw 27.0% · Baník Souš 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pardubice II 2.49 · Draw 3.36 · Baník Souš 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Pardubice II 36.4% · Draw 27.0% · Baník Souš 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pardubice II win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3599376

Closing Odds 2.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pardubice II win · Pardubice II 1–0 Baník Souš
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL B
  • Fixture: Pardubice II vs Baník Souš
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Pardubice II 1.26 — Baník Souš 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 3. liga - CFL B Matches Track Pardubice II Next Match Prediction Track Baník Souš Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Pardubice II & Baník Souš!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
3. liga - CFL B Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B Predictions