Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL B / Velké Hamry vs Slovan Liberec II

Prediction Audit: Velké Hamry vs Slovan Liberec II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Velké Hamry Velké Hamry
Aug 08, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.20
2 1.40
xG Accuracy: 80%
Slovan Liberec II Slovan Liberec II

AI correctly predicted the Slovan Liberec II win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Slovan Liberec II Slovan Liberec II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Velké Hamry higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Velké Hamry -5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Velké Hamry 30.6% 35.9% -5.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 25.1% +4.4 pp Aligned
Slovan Liberec II 39.9% 39.0% +0.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Velké Hamry's win probability at 35.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Slovan Liberec II win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Velké Hamry. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Slovan Liberec II higher (45.2% vs model 39.9%, 5.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Slovan Liberec II win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Velké Hamry 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Slovan Liberec II 40.0%
    • xG · Velké Hamry 1.20 — Slovan Liberec II 1.40
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Velké Hamry 2.52 · Draw 3.61 · Slovan Liberec II 2.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Velké Hamry 35.9% · Draw 25.1% · Slovan Liberec II 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Velké Hamry 2.52 · Draw 3.61 · Slovan Liberec II 2.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Velké Hamry 35.9% · Draw 25.1% · Slovan Liberec II 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Slovan Liberec II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2823609

Closing Odds 2.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slovan Liberec II win · Velké Hamry 1–2 Slovan Liberec II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL B
  • Fixture: Velké Hamry vs Slovan Liberec II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Velké Hamry 1.2 — Slovan Liberec II 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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